Constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies on historic epidemics: supplementary appendices

The Sellke and Poisson constructions can be used to specify alternative underlying or latent stochastic processes for standard stochastic epidemic models, leading to sampling properties identical to those generated, for example, by Gillespie’s algorithm (Gillespie, 1977). Readers may wish to refer to Svensson (2007) and Sellke (1983) for further discussion of the Poisson and Sellke constructions, respectively. Predicting the effect of mooted interventions operates by making explicit assumptions about how interventions impact on the respective latent processes.